Welcome to Luke's personal football page. I post all of my opinions on top notch prospects and fantasy football in general. Check it out and let me know what you think!
Exposed to: Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon
Invulnerable to: Marquez Callaway, Byron Pringle, Antonio Brown, Gerald Everett, Olamide Zaccheaus
Overall: Wasn't able to get a top 4 RB in any league. Went WR heavy instead! Marquez is the truth!
Here's my draft board entering the 2021 draft season. Key takeaways:
1. Keenan Allen is slept on
2. Brandin Cooks is slept on
3. Antonio Brown is slept on
4. Top 5 TEs are worth their ADP
5. Fade McLaurin at current ADP (WR11)
6. Forgot Tyrell Williams, slot him in behind Corey Davis
1. Trevor Lawrence Big body, tall. Confident. Very strong and capable runner. Throws with conviction, doesn't throw stupid balls. High point of release. Not super accurate, often had his WRs go to the ground to make the play or step off their route. Can get jumpy when he's sitting in the pocket. Played with an all star cast in ETN, Justyn Ross, Tee Hggins, and a solid OL. Ran a complicated offense and could work through his options quickly.
2. Justin Fields Above average size for a quarterback and very athletic. Not the best vision as a runner in space but very good at juking last second in the pocket when he's waited too long. Not the best pocket awareness and bailed himself out a lot by making quick moves and taking off. I doubt this would have been as effective in SEC competition. Great deep thrower. Can make tight throws over the middle, can make throws over the top. Good at dumping off. Seems to only hit wide open targets unless its a go route. Not great at throwing on the run. He is always making simple moves that buy him loads of time against pass rushers that I don't see possible in other conferences. Very cool personality, seems calm enough to succeed at the next level.
3. Zach Wilson Can make very impressive throws. Strikes across the middle, high point balls on the outside, underhand shovel throws up the middle, darts to the first down markers, accurate throws on the run.. He has some seemingly dominant WRs catching his long passes. Hard to tell if they are good at positioning themselves, or if Wilson is putting it right where it needs to be, or if the competition is too weak. Quick release - looks like he snaps it out of his arm. Capable legs. Flashy/risky. Confident but not relaxed. Could work for or against him.
5. Trey Lance A lot of his college success needs to be credited to his physical ability. He could shed tackles and make a play downfield or take off on the run. Talented runner and big enough body to take hits without immediately going down. Not the most accurate thrower but has a strong arm. His WRs weren't great but neither were the defenses he played. Wish we had some SEC tape but he clearly didn't belong in the Missouri Valley Conference. Josh Allen upside.
6. Julian Newman Only throws perfect spirals. Looks like Cam Newtown when he's throwing. High realease and does his best on short routes over the middle. Legitimate dual threat. Better with dart throws than deep balls or anything over the top. Would have been fun to see him at Georgia with a good line and WRs. Not great at sensing pressure and knowing how to find extra time in the back. Questionable decision making under pressure in that he will still try to make a play.
7. Kyle Trask Good arm. Puts the ball where it needs to be. Has good touch passes and can drop it in the basket and then turn around a make a dart pass next. Looks like a near-retired Roethlisberger.
1. Najee Harris Beast. Big body and very strong. Good balance when he runs in traffic. Fast enough to slash and can demonstrate patience. Knows to run north at basically all times. Can seemingly do it all. Sometimes waits for the hole to be completely open and therefore a little late. Looks like an NFL player.
2. Travis Ettiene Runs like an absolute maniac. Seems like he is faster than he would be timed. Can brake, cut, accelerate, and dodge quicker than a lot of people. All he does is produce. An electric and unorthodox player. Great receiver. Funny personality, humble. Running motion looks strange but he has elite top speed. Not super strong but can manage his way out of tackles.
3. Javonte Williams Reminds me of a smaller, faster Leonard Fournette. Runs angry and is hard to take down. Constantly stiff arming people and lower through traffic. Plunges through mobs. Violent. Stands people up in pass protection well. Looks like a really stout person. Always protecting the ball. Didn't get much work as a receiver but great when you just hand it to him.
4. Kenneth Gainwell Smaller frame, fast and low center of gravity type. Good hands, can run routes and make catches on the outside. Not particularly hard to stop but he can gash. Quick player.
5. Michael Carter Good athlete and has great vision. Hits holes when they are there and barges the pile when there's nothing. Operated in the same backfield as Javonte Williams and worked well as the second punch. Fast but looks to be a little smaller.
6. Kylin Hill Good at finding a pass rusher and taking them on. Fast and has good vision. Can go out wide, up the middle, everything. Slim figure. Doesn't really generate separation when he's rounning routes but can still be dumped off to. Not really a big play/break away player.
7. Trey Sermon Good patience, good timing behind his line. OSU gave him massive holes. Doesn’t do a ton of finding his own production. Can get exceptionally low. Seems to use his arms on the ground more than anyone else. Fights hard. Can go down easy, not super balanced.
8. Chuba Hubbard Track speed and likes to keep the movement straight up and down but seems hesitant or indecisive when he sees bodies in front of him. Gets bottled up a lot when he's got no momentum.
9. Khalil Herbert Bowling ball figure that has enough burst to break off chunks and always fights for more. Keshawn Vaughn type but not quite as angry.
10. Jaret Patterson Smaller type but has four wheel drive. Like the opposite of AJ Dillon. Probably not sized right for a full workhorse role at the next level but can still damage a defense.
11. Rhomandre Stevenson Atypical size - built like a cylinder. Good balance and arm strength. Not particularly fast. Bruiser type.
1. Jamaar Chase Wins contested balls, constantly adjusting his route to get more separation or make it easier on his quarterback, always seems to know exactly where the defender is and manages his catches accordingly. Good instincts. Doesn't generate much separation with his speed and cuts but can still burn down the sideline if he wants. One year with an NFL ready QB and playing opposite Justin Jefferson gives his value a hint of inflation.
2. Devonta Smith Athletic speedster that excels in the short passing game and has top notch acceleration with the ball in his hands. Doesn't make drops. Very good at adjusting to balls if he has hangtime to work with - ability to make super acrobatic plays. Doesn't break tackles and can get taken down with a shirt pull. Good at using long arms to keep space from defenders without pushing off. Very hard to guard.
3. Rashod Bateman Big hands-catcher. Fast and tall. Works great out wide and generates separation with speed. Can high point the ball without jumping and stay strong through the catch. Will pair well with a QB that has a deep yards/attempt average. Looks like AJ Brown out there.
4. Jaylen Waddle Very fast. Real playmaker with the ball. Get's up to speed quick and can make people miss. Seems to always catch the ball against his body, even in screen plays. Doesn't make highlight catches but makes highlight runs. Can be schemed into some great success but not a third down at the sticks type of player. Gets good separation on his routes since he's so fast and runs good routes. Would be best paired with some type of strong intermediate catchers.
5. Elijah Moore Undersized but good hands, good contact balance, and makes people miss. Elite acceleration. Focuses on the catch but very quick at turning into a runner. Can't generate separation on the outside. Has gadget abilities and experience in the backfield but I don't thin he belongs in that setting. Pure slot receiver.
6. Tylan Wallace Ability to get up and make a high catch. Makes very difficult catches look like everyday things. Just a gamer. Not super fast but still succeeded on the outside. QB made his life a little more difficult than it needed to be. Big 12 defense.
7. Kadarius Toney Quick off the line. Long legs. Looks like a smaller Jerry Jeudy out there. Can excel out of the backfield or on the outside. Super speedy. Doesn't have the breakaway long speed but he can generate separation very quickly and make chunk plays quick.
8. Terrace Marshall Tall body, keeps body compusure when he's on the move. Doesn't seem absolutely elite at anything specifically but very well rounded and produces when he gets the target. Speed, catch radius, route running, ability to adapt on throws.. It's all there. Can work in short slants or on the outside. Reminds me of Michael Thomas build but maybe not as strong.
9. Rondale Moore Shifty and fast playmaker. Used in all kinds of ways in college. Served as a major focal point in his team's offense. Loves to get outside and work the boundaries. Not a go-up-and-get-it type of receiver but capable of high volume in the short game. Game breaking ability. Would love to see him on the Chiefs, Bills, Packers. Smaller player but has good balance. Very exciting player.
10. Tamorrion Terry Impossible to watch this guy and not see the upside that DK Metcalf has shown the NFL. Huge body, elite top end speed, great acceleration. This guy is a problem for defensive backs. Impressive route running and cutting ability. Good downfield blocker. Looks a little out of place running short routes, not very refined. Seems like a reckless ball carrier but true game-breaking ability.
11. Dazz Newsome Small and speedy slot reciever with elite quickness. Appears to always be talking with defenders. High energy player. Stays engaged on plays and does a solid job of down field blocking. Very raw. Not super composed or balanced and gets hit hard for it. Not a hands catcher. Would be fun to see him on a team that likes the short passing game.
12. Amon-Ra St Brown Good anticipation of the ball, good reflexes. Ran a lot of out routes and worked the sidelines. Hard to tell if he has a limited route tree or if his QB only excelled in certain situations. Always looks for the big play. Not very physical.
I had 5 teams this last year, which is about my max. I tend to play in very competitive leagues so I'm not rolling over managers that don't make moves. I managed to make playoffs in 2, and win 1. Not a good year at all but the win was a 20 teamer which was very fun. I also was the high point leader in another but missed playoffs. Love it. I will make a list of players I like/don't like going into the next season which will highlight my main differences.
Two of my most owned players between my 5 leagues were Will Fuller and Kareem Hunt. I knew the volume would be there for Fuller and got lucky on Hunt taking over as top dawg in Cleveland, although I prefer him to serve in that 3rd down/4th quarter role. He smashes.
I faded Kenyan Drake, Juju, and James Conner pretty hard. This served well although I enjoy getting proved wrong by players showing up.
Another one of my most owned players was Daniel Jones. I thought he would take a step forward with Jason Garrett, a new LT in Andrew Thomas, and a terrible defense. Turns out the defense was great and Jones was never fantasy relevant.
I faded Hopkins because I saw too much of the OBJ->Browns situation backfire. Hopkins is a beast. I faded Dalvin Cook due to injury concerns and he tore it up. I drafted Mattison everywhere on the cheap and it never did anything for me. Throw injury caution to the wind in fantasy!!! These guys are here to play!!!
1 Christian McCaffrey
2 Saquon Barkley
3 Ezekiel Elliott
4 Derrick Henry
5 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
6 Michael Thomas - S Tier player in line with CMC but at a very deep position.
7 Alvin Kamara
8 Joe Mixon
9 Aaron Jones - Potentially Aaron Rodgers' #2 pass-catching option and an obvious red zone monster. Still expect him to see 60%+ of the snaps/production from this backfield even with AJ Dillon being drafted. Very concentrated offense between him and Davante.
10 Dalvin Cook
11 Nick Chubb
12 Davante Adams
13 Tyreek Hill
14 Josh Jacobs
15 Miles Sanders
16 Lamar Jackson - Too nasty to let fall. If any team gets him the the third watch out.
17 Kenyan Drake
18 Austin Ekeler
19 George Kittle
20 Julio Jones
21 Patrick Mahomes
22 Deandre Hopkins - Hasn't seen less than 150 targets/yr since he was a sophomore splitting volume with Andre Johnson. Now shares targets with Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk and has a QB that does not lock on to players.
23 Travis Kelce
24 Chris Godwin
25 Mike Evans - Expecting a decline in volume since Jameis was insane. Jameis had almost 1,000 more Intended Air Yards than the next highest QB (6,486 vs 5,539 (Dak)). I expect this to go down but it will still support two great WRs. Evans is QB proof and has TB12.
26 David Johnson
27 Chris Carson
28 Cooper Kupp - Easily Goff's favorite target. Goff threw it over 600 times last year. Even a 20% share is 120 base targets and Kupp works in high-percentage catch rate areas.
29 Adam Thielen - Would require a big time emergence from one of his teammates to not see very heavy volume from Cousins.
30 Kenny Golloday
31 Todd Gurley - One of the more difficult players to gauge as the upside is top tier RB in a very good offense but the downside is obvious health issues and a capped ceiling due to limited carries. Will probably make or break teams early on.
32 Leveon Bell
33 DJ Moore
34 James Conner
35 Odell Beckham
36 Amari Cooper - Expecting stronger than usual rookie impact from Ceedee Lamb which only drives other Dallas pass catchers down. Will still shred some defenses but on an inconsistent basis.
37 Leonard Fournette - Best running back on the high-powered Tampa Bay offense. His opportunity will be capped at the beginning but ultimately will be unleashed. Always produces when he's on the field and he is being drafted at a discount.
38 Mark Andrews
39 Melvin Gordon
40 Kareem Hunt - Expecting him to be very efficient with his touches since he gets most plays off. Never been anything less than a beast when he's on the field. No reason to think it will slow down and offense seemingly showed floor last year.
41 Raheem Mostert
42 Keenan Allen
43 Tyler Lockett
44 Will Fuller - Has seen his targets increase every year since he's come into the league. Checks every sijngle box regarding talent, opportunity as Watson's 1a/1b, and volume with Hopkins leaving. The upside is well worth it at this point in a draft but he is going later.
45 Jarvis Landry
46 Robert Woods
47 DK Metcalf
48 Stefon Diggs
49 Jonathon Taylor
50 Marlon Mack
51 Mark Ingram - Should be the most productive RB on the team again but there's also Lamar, Gus Edwards, and JK Dobbins in the mix who I expect to all play a part. Only so many carries to go around and last year is Ingram's ceiling at 200+.
52 Zack Moss
53 James White - One of the best value picks in the draft. Newton probably got used to working with CMC and now has two similar playmakers in Edelman and White.
54 Allen Robinson
55 TY Hilton
56 Zach Ertz
57 Evan Engram
58 Darren Waller
59 Tyler Boyd
60 Christian Kirk
61 DJ Chark
62 AJ Brown
63 Kyler Murray
64 Dak Prescott
65 Russel Wilson
66 Deshaun Watson - Still an elite option at QB even with Hopkins gone. Enough weapons around him to do serious damage between Fuller/Cooks out wide, David/Duke Johnson out of the backfield, and Fells/Cobb/Stills in the gaps.
67 Tyler Higbee
68 Tarik Cohen
69 Jordan Howard
70 Cam Akers
71 Deandre Swift
72 JK Dobbins
73 Tom Brady - Which coach is better for fantasy - Belichick or Arians? Now consider the weapons at hand.
74 Matt Ryan
75 Daniel Jones - Showed he can blow up in games where his defense can't stop anything. Their defense still is terrible after spending draft capital to beef up the offensive line and losing multiple defensive backs in the offseason. Jameis Winston just showed us that turnovers can be overcome from the QB position.
76 Julian Edelman
77 Devante Parker
78 Terry McLaurin
79 Diontae Johnson
80 Courtland Sutton
81 Juju Smith Schuster
82 Jalen Reagor
83 John Brown
84 Calvin Ridley
85 Dallas Goedert - Could be a top 5 TE if anything happens to Ertz and will be on the field regardless. Finished as a TE1 in 2019 and should only see an increase in touches.
86 Noah Fant
87 Austin Hooper
88 Hunter Henry
89 Will Dissly
90 Jared Cook
91 Mike Gesicki
93 Josh Allen
94 Ryan Tannehill - Finally gives Derrick Henry a good passing attack and finally has a strong rungame to take the heat off. Last year was probably the ceiling but knowing he can hit that every so often makes him a solid value pick.
95 Aaron Rodgers
96 Drew Brees
97 David Montgomery
98 Darrell Williams
99 Phillip Lindsay
100 Sony Michel
6 RBs were taken in the first two rounds but I'm just going to focus on top 5, which excludes AJ Dillon, who I think will have an extremely difficult time being ff relevant as long as Aaron Jones is in front of him.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Only RB taken in the first round. Will be splitting the backfield with Damien Williams, Darwin Thompson, Elijah McGuire, and Darrel Williams. I don't see the latter three getting meaningful snaps unless one of Clyde/Damien is injured. This situation looks a lot like CMC to me. CMC was splitting with Jonathon Stewart and Cam Newton. The big difference being CMC is the only elite pass catcher in that backfield while CEH will have Damien who is also good.
Cam: 139 att/754 yds/6 rush TDs
Stewart: 198 att/680 yds & 8 rec/52 yds for 7 tot TDs
CMC: 117 att/435 yds & 80 rec/651 yds for 7 tot TDs
CMC had 26% of the carries but 90% of the catches out of the backfield and finished as RB10 in ppr. Carolina had the 19th most productive offense in 2017.
I think CEH will get more than 26% (40%) of the carries, but less than 90% (50%) of the catches.
A typical team runs 25-35 times per game. KC is still pass heavy so let's assume 25. This means 400 att in 2020. They had 375 in 2019. If CEH sees 40% (less than what J Stewart saw in Carolina) then that is 160 att. Mahomes doesn't run a lot (60 attempts MVP year and less in 2019) so this is a fair assumption, probably low. Zeke saw 242 att his rookie year, Saquon 261.. Those are ceilings.
In 2019, McCoy, Williams, Williams #2 combined for 73 catches. This is skewed low due to Mahomes missing time, Williams missing time, and McCoy being better in the ground. I think 100 catches in the backfield is a fair bet for a healthy KC offense. That would give 50 catches to CEH.
At 4 yds/carry and 8 yds/catch, that gives 740 yds rushing and 400 yds receiving. I expect KC to have a top 3 offense and give CEH at least 8 TDs. I think CEH will outperform CMC's rookie year and finish as RB8 or better in ppr. This floor combined with the fact that KC is the favorite to run it back and Mahomes played a role in drafting CEH gives a top 3 ceiling.
Deandre Swift: First RB taken on Day 2. Lands in a less-than-ideal situation in DET but will get every opportunity to take the lead role from Kerryon Johnson, Bo Scarbrough, and Ty Johnson. The latter 2 did not impress enough in their limited opportunity to dissuade DET from going RB early. I see an Alvin Kamara situation as he was splitting with Mark Ingram. I am saying Adrian Peterson did not play a role in these stats. He had ~100 yards total for NO that year.
Ingram: 230 att/1,124 yds & 58 rec/416 yds for 12 tot TDs
Kamara: 120 att/728 yds & 81 rec/826 yds for 13 tot TDs
Kamara saw 34% of the carries and 58% of the catches. He finished as RB3 with the most efficient touches I have ever seen. New Orleans was the 2nd most productive offense that year.
I think Swift will see more than 34% (40%) of the carries and more than 58% (60%) of the catches. Kerryon is not Mark Ingram.
Last year the Lions did not have an effective run game. Kerryon saw 3.57 yds/carry. They ran the ball 25 times per game. They ranked 21sts in rush yards per game but 16th in attempts per game. They must believe Swift can be the gamebreaker that he was in Georgia. The Lions did not throw to their RBs much last year - Kerryon (10), Scarbrough (1), Ty Johnson (24).
Assuming 420 rushes, a slight boost from 407 in 2019, that gives Swift 168 rushes. We'd hope that Swift catches more passes than any RB did last year - let's say 30. 4 yds/carry and 8 yds/catch gives 672 on the ground and 240 through the air. I see them being a deep passing team again with Marvin Jones, Golloday, Amendola, and Hockenson. I think a fair TD prediction is 5. Looking like a solid flex option.
Jonathon Taylor: Taylor finds himself behind an elite offensive line in Indy but sharing the load with a very capable two-down back in Marlon Mack and a third-down specialist in Nyheim Hines. I see him in a similar situation as Miles Sanders in his rookie year. Sanders went into 2019 having a capable player in Jordan Howard in front of him with a hodgepodge of Boston Scott and Darren Sproles as third down guys. Sproles didn't do much.
It doesn't make sense to use season totals because Jordan Howard played 9 games with PHI. Sanders took over after that. It is hard to gauge when players will be hurt/traded, so let's just look at the first 9 games.
Howard: 119 att/525 yds & 10 rec/69 yds for 7 tot TDs
Sanders: 76 att/336 yds & 24 rec/314 yds for 2 tot TDs
Scott: 16 att/68 yds & 1 rec/1 yd for 1 tot TDs
Sanders saw 36% of the rushes and 69% of the catches. Eagles had a top 5 offensive line and were the 14th most productive offense in 2019.
Taylor is not regarded as the pass-catcher that Sanders was in college. I don't think Taylor will see that same level of involvement but he will have Rivers, who checks down more than any other starting QB. I think Taylor sees a similar amount of rushes (35%) but less catches (25%) in a more check-down friendly offense.
If Mack misses any time at all, Taylor is a low-end RB1 with a higher ceiling than Mack ever had. With the split backfield, I see an RB20+ finish but a great dynasty path ahead.
Some interesting notes on the Colts - Mack is in his final year which means they could feed him as the regular season bruiser while Taylor gets acclimated to NFL speed. Mack will be making as much money this year ($2M) as he has made his whole career. Colts spent both of their early second round picks on offensive skill positions. Rivers is on a new team with a top 5 offensive line. I fully expect the Colts to be a playoff contender and they are committing to this season.
Cam Akers: Akers was the fourth running back drafted and presumably replaces Gurley as the lead back in a pass-heavy attack. Cam was a one-man army in college and excelled in both the running and passing game. I see strong situational similarities to Joe Mixon in his rookie year - that is, without a doubt the most talented back on the team but will share duties based on competitors familiarity to playbook, experience with NFL games, and simply not relying on a rookie.
Mixon: 178 att/626 yds & 30 rec/287 yds for 4 tot TDs
Bernard: 105 att/458 yds & 43 rec/398 yds for 4 tot TDs
Hill: 37 att/116 yds & 4 rec/16 yd for 0 tot TDs
Hill only played in seven games but never saw more than 6 attempts in any game.
Mixon saw 56% of the rush attempts and 39% of the catches out of the backfield.
I think Akers will see a similar amount of rushes (50%) and a similar share of the catches (35%). This will largely depend on his ability to pass protect on third down which wasn't a strength in college. Henderson and Brown have had time to adjust and will likely be third down starters, at least to start the first half of the season.
Rams have produced an RB1 the last few years but it's hard to know it that was because of Gurley, McVay, or the combination. Gurley had five straight 1,000+ yard seasons and a 2,000+ yd season with McVay. That's what you hope for with an RB drafted 10th overall... Akers is not Gurley.
Gurley: 223 att/ 857 yds & 31 rec/207 yds for 14 tot TDs
Brown: 69 att/255 yds & 2 rec/16 yds for 5 tot TDs
Henderson: 39 att/147 yds & 4 rec/37 yds for 0 tot TDs
Rams RBs produced 19 TDs, not bad! They also combined for 3.8 yards/attempt. All saw within .1 yds/att average. There are warranted concerns about this offensive line that did not get a boost in the offseason. Taking this same volume and applying my workload, Akers will see 166 carries and 16 catches. Adressing the offensive line by adjusting average production to 6 yards/catch and 3.8 yards per carry gives 630 yards on the ground and 96 through the air. Not a true fantasy asset in this case even if he gets a good amount of the TDs.
Rams also let Cooks go which could free up some touches but Everett and Higbee will both get theirs too. This is one of the more difficult offenses for me to gauge but it doesn't look great for Akers unless he finds a way to banish his competition.
JK Dobbins: Dobbins lands in a fantastic rush-heavy attack with Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. There has been early coach speak about Lamar doing less with his legs but we know what will happen when the game is on the line. I see similarities between Dobbins new situation and Darrell Henderson when he was drafted - elite RB1 in front of him and decent depth to compete with in Brown.
copying from above...
Gurley: 223 att/ 857 yds & 31 rec/207 yds for 14 tot TDs
Brown: 69 att/255 yds & 2 rec/16 yds for 5 tot TDs
Henderson: 39 att/147 yds & 4 rec/37 yds for 0 tot TDs
Henderson saw 12% of the carries and 11% of the catches. I think this is fair for Dobbins. Ingram is set to make $4M in 2020 and just showed that he is capable of handling a workhorse load. Ingram could be released after 2020 season for a minor cap hit but he is still contracted through 2021. Ravens just had a phenomenal season and shouldn't be looking to change much. I can't see Dobbins getting a big enough share of the backfield unless Ingram misses games.
Here are the Ravens rushing stats -
Lamar: 176 att/1,206 yds for 7 rush TDs
Ingram: 202 att/1,018 yds & 26 rec/247 yds for 15 tot TDs
Edwards: 133 att/711 yds & 7 rec/45 yds for 2 tot TDs
Hill: 58 att/225 yds & 8 rec/70 yds for 2 tot TDs
The Dobbins owner hopes that Lamar cuts the rushing down to ~700 yards and Ingram falls down to ~800 yards. Assuming Hill loses his job entirely and Edwards keeps his at the same level as a change of pace back, that gives the Ravens 2,200 rushing yards base. This offense would qualify as the 5th best rushing attack in 2019, right ahead of Dallas.
Ourlads.com has Dobbins as the #2 RB. So if we relegate Edwards to ~300 yards then our total is at 1,800. In this case, there would be room for Dobbins to have as much as 1,000 yards or as little as 400 yards. It's incredibly hard to predict a workload in this offense with all the capable and healthy backs at the Ravens disposal. If Ingram is hurt and Dobbins becomes the lead back, sky is the limit, if not, he might be nothing more than a desperation flex play for bye weeks.
1 Patrick Mahomes
2 Lamar Jackson
3 Kyler Murray
4 Russel Wilson
5 Dak Prescott
6 Deshaun Watson
7 Daniel Jones
8 Josh Allen
9 Ryan Tannehill
10 Aaron Rodgers
11 Drew Brees
12 Matt Ryan
13 Tom Brady
14 Jimmy Garoppolo
15 Carson Wentz
16 Baker Mayfield
17 Matthew Stafford
18 Joe Burrow
19 Philip Rivers
20 Kirk Cousins
21 Teddy Bridgewater
22 Jared Goff
23 Ben Roethlisberger
24 Drew Lock
25 Sam Darnold
26 Derek Carr
27 Gardner Minshew
28 Tua Tagovailoa
29 Tyrod Taylor
30 Jarrett Stidham
31 Nick Foles
32 Dwayne Haskins
33 Ryan Fitzpatrick
34 Mitch Trubisky
35 Jameis Winston
36 Justin Herbert
37 Andy Dalton
38 Jordan Love
39 Robert Griffin
40 Marcus Mariota
1 Saquon Barkley
2 Christian McCaffrey
3 Ezekiel Elliott
4 Alvin Kamara
5 Derrick Henry
6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
7 Dalvin Cook
8 Joe Mixon
9 Aaron Jones
10 Nick Chubb
11 Kenyan Drake
12 Josh Jacobs
13 Miles Sanders
14 Austin Ekeler
15 Leonard Fournette
16 David Johnson
17 Todd Gurley
18 Jonathon Taylor
19 Leveon Bell
20 Chris Carson
21 Cam Akers
22 Devin Singletary
23 Raheem Mostert
24 Mark Ingram
25 JK Dobbins
26 Melvin Gordon
27 Tarik Cohen
28 Jordan Howard
29 Kareem Hunt
30 Rashaad Penny
31 Deandre Swift
32 Phillip Lindsay
33 David Montgomery
34 Darrell Henderson
35 James Conner
36 Derrius Guice
37 Sony Michel
38 Damien Williams
39 Marlon Mack
40 Latavius Murray
41 Kerryon Johnson
42 Ronald Jones
43 Keshawn Vaughn
44 Matt Breida
45 Tony Pollard
46 James White
47 Alexander Mattison
48 Anthony McFarland
49 Devontae Freeman
50 Royce Freeman
1 Michael Thomas
2 Tyreek Hill
3 Davante Adams
4 Julio Jones
5 Cooper Kupp
6 Deandre Hopkins
7 Chris Godwin
8 Amari Cooper
9 Mike Evans
10 Adam Thielen
11 Kenny Golloday
12 Will Fuller
13 Tyler Lockett
14 DJ Moore
15 Odell Beckham
16 Keenan Allen
17 Stefon Diggs
18 Jarvis Landry
19 DK Metcalf
20 TY Hilton
21 Allen Robinson
22 Devante Parker
23 Robert Woods
24 Christian Kirk
25 DJ Chark
26 AJ Brown
27 Deebo Samuel
28 Julian Edelman
29 Sterling Shepard
30 Tyler Boyd
31 Courtland Sutton
32 CeeDee Lamb
33 Juju Smith Schuster
34 Jalen Reagor
35 John Brown
36 Calvin Ridley
37 Jamison Crowder
38 Brandin Cooks
39 Terry McLaurin
40 Justin Jefferson
41 Darius Slayton
42 Jerry Jeudy
43 Emmanuel Sanders
44 Henry Ruggs
45 Nkeal Harry
46 Marquise Brown
47 Marvin Jones
48 Laviska Shenault
49 Auden Tate
50 Tee Higgins
51 Golden Tate
52 Kenny Stills
53 Mecole Hardman
54 AJ Green
55 Curtis Samuel
56 Diontae Johnson
57 Dede Westbrook
58 Robby Anderson
59 Andy Isabella
60 Mike Williams
61 John Ross
62 Preston Williams
1 George Kittle
2 Travis Kelce
3 Mark Andrews
4 Evan Engram
5 Darren Waller
6 Zach Ertz
7 Tyler Higbee
8 Dallas Goedert
9 Noah Fant
10 Austin Hooper
11 Hunter Henry
12 Will Dissly
13 Jared Cook
14 Mike Desicki
15 Adam Trautman
16 Cole Kmet
17 Blake Jarwin
18 Delanie Walker
19 Jack Doyle
20 TJ Hockenson
21 Vance McDonald
22 Gerald Everett
23 OJ Howard
24 Kyle Rudolph
25 Ian Thomas
1 Justin Tucker
2 Harrison Butker
3 Will Lutz
4 Chris Boswell
5 Greg Zuerlein
6 Aldrick Rosas
7 Kaimi Fairbairn
8 Robbie Gould
9 Kai Forbath
10 Matt Prater
1 Joe Burrow Doesn't make mistakes. He has good situational awareness and can find spots with his feet. Plays cool. Good recognition of when he has to let it go and can do it off one foot if he needs to. Good ball placement and has a deep average throw distance. Benefitted tremendously from his line and weapons. This can't be overstated. Has two top WRs that can win jump balls and a line that's loaded with talent. They don't do it all for him but they give him time and open looks. Still, Burrow set all kinds of records so it is on his shoulders. Andrew Luck comp.
2 Jordan Love Lots of arm talent and plays like the best player on the offense. Experienced with poor offensive line and dealing with whatever comes to him. Relatively poor decision making when it comes to deep tosses/lobs. Strong running ability but prefers to throw. Makes all types of throws. Scans his options better than other QBs not named Burrow. Lots of designed-throw plays make it seem his vision is worse than it is. Deshaun Watson comp.
3 Tua Tagovailoa Good college quarterback. Strong running ability makes him a dual threat but not one you need to scheme against. Will fight for yards with his body/legs. Unique throwing style that is quick and accurate. Not an accurate deep thrower, even with Ruggs and Jeudy. ikes to snipe it in place and in stride. Can get locked-on with his WR at times and decision making is questionable. Super talented and has good posture/presence in the backfield. Drew Brees comp but less accurate.
4 Justin Herbert Big body and big arm. High point of release means he's throwing strikes. Fairly inaccurate, much moreso when he's rolling out. Bad case of locking-on to certain WRs. Doesn't scan the field enough. Poor awareness but ability to escape if it weak. Serious dual threat and hard to take down. Manages to stiff guys entirely or for more yards when only one comes at him. Paxton Lynch comp.
5 Jacob Eason Talented arm and high volume thrower. Likes to take shots deep and is accurate with them. Poor vision in terms of findings his guys and gauging the secondary. Doesn't like to make short plays, reluctant to use the RB. Less running ability than his decision making would suggest. Cleats grow roots.
6 Jalen Hurts Very capable runner but runs too often. Not an accurate thrower - makes the easy throws and wants to run if no one is wide open. Good awareness in the pocket but not good at extending plays behind the line of scrimmage and continuing to look downfield. Solid presence.
7 Jake Fromm Inconsistent accuracy and never seems to make it easy on the WRs. Good at getting space at the beginning of the play but doesn't seem too aware of what's going on at the edges. Doesn't scan the field for the open guy and when he does it takes too long. Less than average running ability. Slow tempo. Not a high volume thrower.
1 Jonathon Taylor Powerful runner and smooth balance. Doesn't go down easy and finds holes with above average vision. Avoids full speed contact when he can and prefers to cut. Very good acceleration out of cuts and is up to full speed at the line of scrimmage if there is a hole he sees. Doesn't always go for the home run play. Pure workhorse ability. Zeke comp but seeks a little less contact.
2 Clyde Edwards-Helaire Unique abilities and playstyle. Barrels through holes and disappears in congestion. Plays to his strengths and keeps low balance with good-to-great gear shifting speed and lateral shiftiness. Doesn't seem to accelerate at the beginning of the play until he sees a hole. Average vision but has more options due to size. Sticky hands. Benefitted from deep secondary units looking at Chase and Jefferson. Possible game changing size. Surprisingly good pass protection. Concerns as to why he wasn't nearly as good in previous years.
3 Cam Akers Strong and slippery. Able to get a lot with not a lot of help. Poor line gave him good decision making experience. Seems to know when to be patient and when to just get up there. Questionable pass protection but hard to tell because his line was terrible and his QB got cute with edge rushers often. High volume guy and goes hard on every play. Deserves a starting role at the next level.
4 Deandre Swift Tremendous athlete. Works LBs in holes and knows when they can't keep up with him. Very fast and hard for defenses to predict. Productive in chaotic situations. Tendancy to lose yards when he catches it in the backfield because he isn't good at catching and turning upfield quick. Runs skinnier than his weight suggests - prefers to avoid contact because that's how he wins.
5 JK Dobbins Fast and creative in space. Takes too many steps coming out of the backfield. Not quite as strong as you would like but looks and moves like he's built for a 3-down role. Makes catching look easy but drops some. Keeps upright unless he's in traffic. Not afraid of contact with the secondary and will lead with his shoulder to earn yards. Makes the right choices. Jaws with defenders.
6 Anthony McFarland Another top notch athlete. Classic runningback style with acceleration, speed, and big plays. You can tell he is used to making big plays and will probably continue to do that at the next level. Not good at protecting the QB and not good at quickly becoming a receiving option to bail out his QB. A little moreso a one-tricky-pony than the rest of the class but he shows off the one-trick all the time.
7 Zack Moss Versatile, complete back. Patient behind the line and excellent decision maker. Knows when to cut up field, bounce outside, and take just what's given. Played with a porous offensive line so he knows when the play is over and tries to get back to the line. Can churn out extra yards in space with spins and sheds weak tackles. Good hands. Weak in pass protection - can't stand up to edge rushers very well. Aggressive/brutal running style takes a lot of damage. Similar style to Akers but not as strong or fast.
8 AJ Dillon Big framed shoulders and body with impressive top speed. Carries a relatively high center of balance and goes down surprisingly easy considering the arm strength. Avoids contact and bets on his feet often. A lot to be desired in terms of asserting dominance with his power but still an impressive runner that is capable of breaking out wide. Could develop into a Derrick Henry lite and his style may provide longevity.
9 Ke'shawn Vaughn Consistently gives max effort on each play and will fight through tackles. Looks painful for defenses to hit him each play. Brutal style that should get him playing time at the next level but not in a workhorse fashion. Phillip Lindsay comp.
10 Darrynton Evans Doesn't stop fighting for yards. Lighter frame and speedy. Aggressive in pass protection, maybe one of the best in the class. Doesn't take much to take him down. Gets what is given and gets a little more. Hard, brutal style.
11 Lamical Perine Moves in space like a true WR. Not very powerful but crafty and requires solid tackling to make sure he's going down. Can't break through tackles but can avoid by getting small in traffic. Quicker than he is fast. Really just plays like a slot receiver coming out of the backfield.
12 Deejay Dallas Crafty runner and absorbs hits well. Fast enough to skate through holes but lacks elite top speed and acceleration. Stands up well in pass protection but tends to get lost. Gap between protecting and being an option is too big on most plays.
13 Antonio Gibson Great athlete that can be used in more way than just out of the backfield. Strong WR build with great catching ability. Atypical for the RB mold and not suited to be a workhorse but can serve as a weapon in any offense.
14 Joshua Kelley Vision, balance, and decision making are all suspect but could be a product of poor offensive line. Not afraid of contact - even seeks it out at times. Has good bowling ball barrelling technique when he hits crowds and causes damage. Fairly raw in terms of running technique. Lots of lateral movement, not quite as direct as you'd like to see. Very capable receiver.
15 Eno Benjamin Doesn't seem to generate enough power to push through tackles and keeps his balance high. Can shed people with spins and body control but doesn't seem to be exceptional at anything.
1 Ceedee Lamb Very strong catching abilities, big body, and constantly looking to rip more off than what the defense is giving him. Hard to bring down due to his size and athleticism although he played against mainly weak secondaries. Big play ability as seen in his 19+ yards per catch college average. Good route runner and can stop/start as quick as anyone in the class. Body language shows he thinks he's leaving meat on the bones if he isn't wreaking havoc. High expectations. Doesn't seem to give it all he's got on every play, especially one's they aren't throwing on.
2 Jerry Jeudy Elite route running. Ability to shake defenders off the ball to give his QB a wide open target. Good hands and can adjust to high flyers well. Long legs and strides make him a killer in the 15+ yard range. Very fast but not super quick. Can step and cut very hard but likely won't have the time and space to do that at the next level. Big target that makes himself bigger with route running. Avoids contact and doesn't shed tackles but can keep them at a distance with long arms. Long body type.
3 Justin Jefferson Very solid at everything, well-rounded WR. Fast enough to compete, route running and separation are proven at the highest level, can catch away from his body. Ability to run any route - deep, sideline, over the middle, sweep. Used to being heavily used and doesn't commit drops. Can take players on 1v1. Played in an NFL offense opposite Jamarr Chase and likely benefit greatly.
4 KJ Hamler Very fast. Can truly dust people if they aren't turned and ready to keep up. Small body. Less refined than some of the others at the top of this class. Catches against his body. Good at adjusting his body to account for poor deep throws. Used well as a pure deep threat in college. Plays like the fastest WR in the class.
5 Gabriel Davis Can catch anything. Great in 50/50, great in single coverage deep throws. Consistently out-muscles defensive backs on throws over 20 yards deep. Very similar to Mims and Higgins in terms of skillset and receiver type, possibly the fastest of the three.
6 Henry Ruggs Speedy. Can't break tackles or cut people up but he has enough speed to win 1v1's if he has the space. Alabama loved to send him sprinting and then abuse the space he vacated. Commands attention from safeties. He is a legitimate stretcher that can get loose in a split second but doesn't have the route running or quickness off the line to maximize his potential. Always the last WR off the line even though he's the fastest. Avoids contact.
7 Jalen Reagor Crazy atheltic. Maybe the most athletic WR in the class. Not very balanced as a ball carrier. Less than good hands. QB play was very skeptical and may play a role in his catching rating. Can highpoint the ball with his body and timing but will go for the body catch. Doesn't want to extend his arms up to catch like the successful big bodies do in the NFL. Can run any route which enables him for possible WR1 opportunities.
8 Brandon Aiyuk Niche player and sticks to just a couple of routes - slants and gos. Better athlete than WR. Fast and bounces out of cuts fast to create separation with long, strong legs. Hard to take down because of his strength. Catches the ball against his body. Good returner.
9 Tee Higgins All around solid in every facet. Strong enough to break tackles and shake corners, fast enough to be dragged all over the field and be a playmaker on any catch. Better at catching in traffic than he is catching inaccurate throws. Will throw his hand up even if the corner is on top of him because he is great in 50/50. Doesn't generate good separation. Plays like a true #1 wideout. Played with Trevor Lawrence throwing to him which is a big bump in quality of opportunities.
10 Laviska Shenault Built like an oversized runningback and plays like it. Aggressive with the ball in his hands and doesn't shy away from contact. Strong hands and ability to catch in crowds. Didn't see the quality opportunity that some other WRs in the class did. Clear team alpha and will fit in at the next level. Catches with his hands away from his body. Not an efficient runner, lots of lateral movement and looks shaky. Fast but not elite speed. Questionable body language when his team is down.
11 Denzel Mims Strong hands and very physical. Can burn defenders if they aren't set, can come back and catch the contested ball, and can break tackles. Good at going up for contested balls. Catches away from his body. Great downfield blocker. Mike Evans comp.
12 Bryan Edwards Another big body, strong hands WR. Stays outside because he's best in single coverage and stays up to fight for extra yards. Difficult to take down with only one defender. Good downfield blocker. Comfortable running the football and makes sound decisions with the ball in his hands. Very direct runner and doesn't get fancy. Acceleration seems lacking but top end speed combined with size and contact mentaility makes up for it quite a bit.
13 Chase Claypool Large target but not particularly fast. Succeeds in low depth areas like a TE in the NFL. Not physical, fast, or quick enough in the route to generate separation but can check back to the QB and win in contested spots.
14 Devin Duvernay Relies on athletic abilities rather than route running to get separation. Was fast enough to stop unrefined route running from slowing him down. Good at catching and immediately becoming a sprinter. Average hands. Doesn't want to block - could be a product of conference play. Not afraid of contact.
15 James Proche Elite catching ability. Slingshots off the line but only has average straight line speed. Good route runner and wins 50/50 balls despite playing somewhat undersized. Produced a lot in college. Textbook actions on plays he is not involved in.
16 Michael Pittman Not quite elite in any major category. Athletic player but not a burner, good hands but likes to catch against his body and on check backs, solid route running and route tree in general but takes plays off if he isn’t involved. Not super phsyical with defenders but still finds a way.
1 Adam Trautman Great body control and running kinesthetics. Quick enough to make CBs work and always works to get extra yards. Clearly sees himself as more of a WR than a TE but works well in the middle but not just in the middle. Could be better in the blocking realm but stills gives enough.
2 Cole Kmet Sure hands, good protector. Good route runner and used to be involved from any position on offense. Not super athletic to the Kelce/Engram level but fast enough to serve as a real threat in the middle. No major weaknesses.
3 Brycen Hopkins Very good receiver. Little shaky as a runner but top notch speed for a TE. Great hands and ability to high point the ball. Quick at transitioning from a catcher to a runner. Can run block but shouldn't be asked to protect the QB. Not quite the body type/frame to hold up as an every-down TE.
4 Thaddeus Moss Excellent blocker. Ability to run routes and then block downfield. Big frame and filled out, aggressive on run blocking and can hold up to just about anybody. Slow off the line and in general. Will not lose a defender with his route running. Can't generate separation to effectively line up on the outside and expect to get shots. Good hands, can catch with in tight coverage. Too slow to earn extra yards but consistently bails out QBs as a short option. Like an old Jason Witten but with elite blocking ability.
Here are my owned players in 2019. I had five teams and 0-2 shares of each player. Big hits and big misses. Hard to predict injuries but some of the misses were more obvious. Overall, finished 2nd place in two leagues and made playoffs in three.